Imagine you make a well-researched, careful decision based on all the information available. But, due to sheer bad luck, it leads to a negative outcome. Did you make a bad decision?

No. You made a good decision that had a bad outcome. This is a critical distinction.

The world is full of randomness and uncertainty. You cannot control outcomes. You can only control your decision-making *process*. A good process involves gathering information, considering alternatives, understanding risks, and making a choice aligned with your goals. A bad process is impulsive, uninformed, or ignores obvious risks.

If you judge your decisions solely by their outcomes, you'll learn the wrong lessons. You might get lucky with a reckless choice and think you're a genius, or get unlucky with a prudent one and become afraid to take any risks at all. The safest and most effective way to improve is to focus on refining your *process*, and then accept that you can't control the rest.